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From the above table it can be seen that the method does not always provide the correct results. The main weaknesses in the analysis are the short period of records available (ie., only 32 years), which means that in some situations, there is no prior substantial event from the same direction - so that probability estimates are unreliable.
It should also be noted that the results for years 2001 and earlier do not take account of weather effects, which would most likely improve the support scoring considerably. However it is unfortunate that frequently during earthquake periods, monitoring of weather data has temporarily ceased for several days in the
immediate vicinity.
The above analysis has not taken account of prior events of less than M6, which may account for some low estimates of spatial scoring. "Latest Predictions" analysis table now takes account of events of M5+
The above analysis has not taken account of prior events of less than M6, which may account for some low estimates of spatial scoring. "Latest Predictions" analysis table now takes account of events of M5+
The following table is based on analysis by the author of data available prior to each of the events of large magnitude which have occurred in the region over the past few years.
From a success point of view it can be seen that the quake of 26th December off N.Sumatra is predicted with the highest score. This is partly because it occurred at the correct lunar time with a score of 5 points. It also had a large M8.1 predecessor quake in -50 latitude which raised the spatial score.
Correspondingly, the failure to give high priority to the Taiwan quake of 14th November 1986 was partly due to low spatial score as there was only one case of recorded M6+ event from Tonga region followed by an M6+ event in Taiwan in the prior 13 years of available records.
Correspondingly, the failure to give high priority to the Taiwan quake of 14th November 1986 was partly due to low spatial score as there was only one case of recorded M6+ event from Tonga region followed by an M6+ event in Taiwan in the prior 13 years of available records.
