Disclaimer: - As earthquake prediction is still in its infancy, the accuracy of information provided on this web-site cannot be guaranteed by the author, the web-site owner or the hosting organization, neither is any liability accepted by these persons or organizations for any incident or accident resulting out of actions taken by persons as a result of information posted herein.
Copyright of all items in this Earthtremors.com web-site is with the author.
The method of prediction used in this web site is based mainly on correlation of earthquake data with lunar and solar orbits and to some extent on the stresses developed by recent events in the areas under scrutiny combined with statistical recurrence. There is also a minor component based on daily weather patterns as the differential pressure across plate boundaries can have some effect.
Although long term statistical predictions of the likelihood of quakes in particular areas can be made, and the long term greatest influence of moon and sun even to the nearest second can be predicted, we cannot predict the exact moment of rupture (or even to within days or weeks) unless we have recent local stress (or other) data. The analysis of the Asia-Pacific region is presently more thorough than for other areas of the world, as it includes the recent event stress factors updated daily.
Research for this web site started in Asia in 2004 while the author was working in the Philippines and was driven subsequently by the large event of 24 December in Sumatra. However even today with the information available it would probably be difficult to predict a quake of this magnitude with sufficient certainty. In fact magnitude is one of the key problems as there are thousands of lesser quakes every year in generally predictable locations – but to know when the big one is coming is another problem.
From experience, this is presently a matter of looking at the hourly lunar/ solar predictions to see if the same place comes out twice or more on the same hour – but this also has to be combined with a general build-up of stress in the area. This is now the main focus of attention for future work
To the author’s knowledge this is the only web site providing hourly earthquake prediction data for 5 continents of the world.
Volcanoes!
More details for Philippines coming soon based on 400 years of data - see http://earthtremors.org
The Author - Michael Chapman is an Expatriate British Civil Engineer - presently working in Kiribati
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